After guiding Bournemouth to an outstanding 15th place finish, some may be shocked to learn that Gary O'Neil has departed the seaside club. The ex-Portsmouth midfielder managed underdog wins against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, whilst also winning important games against, now relegated, Leeds and Southampton. Yet the board took the bold decision to part ways with O'Neil, and appoint Andoni Iraola as their new Head Coach.
Whilst on the surface O'Neil appears to have had a miraculous campaign with the Cherries, his nine month tenure at the club was not as successful as the league table suggests. O'Neil was appointed as interim Head Coach after Scott Parker was sacked following a 9-0 defeat away at Anfield. He led the team to an impressive 6 game unbeaten streak and was consequently given the permanent role during the World Cup break (only after Marcelo Bielsa rejected the job). However, after this permanent appointment, Bournemouth went on to lose 5 of their next 6 games. This was not the first warning sign that the club had been shown: prior to his permanent appointment, O'Neil had thrown away back-to-back two goal leads against Leeds and Tottenham. Despite this, the board endured the rest of the season and Bournemouth survived relegation with a game to go.
These two warning signs at the start of O'Neil's management can be ignored, due to his achievement of keeping the side out of the bottom three. However, Bo
urnemouth sit in the bottom three for almost every metric for the 2022/23 season. For example only Wolves had less expected goals, and the Cherries sit 20th for shots taken. Defensively, Bournemouth conceded the 3rd most goals and shots on target. Most significantly, based on expected points Bournemouth should've finished bottom. Whilst some of the blame for these stats can be pointed towards Parker, the fact remains that he was only in charge for the opening four games (of which he faced Arsenal, City and Liverpool) and still picked up a 2-0 win.
The evidence mentioned in the previous paragraph shows that O'Neil was not excelling as manager, but simply managed to survive relegation with a huge overperformance when compared to the stats. When his non-existent managerial experience is taken into account, it would be a major risk to enter the new season with O'Neil at the helm. Bournemouth face four of the "Big Six" before October, and so there would be a large possibility of O'Neil being sacked by October. It would be a huge regression in Bournemouth's trajectory if they spent a large sum of money this summer (as new owner Bill Foley intends to) on players that a new manager may not have wanted.
Therefore when O'Neil's (somewhat lucky) overperformance last season and lack of experience are paired with Foley's huge ambitions, it makes sense to appoint a more proven manager before money is wasted on players that are unwanted. Perhaps Bournemouth fans expected a more well known manager, such as Potter, but the sacking of O'Neil will surely fill the Cherries' fans with more confidence heading into another tough Premier League season.
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